Mark the old high
- A swing high is a bar with 3 lower highs on each side of it. It only counts once the third bar after it has closed.
- Of the swing highs in the last 48 bars (4 hours on a 5-minute chart), watch the highest one that hasn't already been broken and used.
- Shorts are the mirror: the lowest unbroken swing low.
The highest recent swing is where the last buyers gave up. If price can get through it and then hold it, the sellers who defended it are gone.
The break opens the setup
- A candle closes at least 1 tick above the old high, after the one before it closed at or below it.
- Only breaks between 9:35 and 3:30 open a setup. The first five minutes and the last half hour are skipped.
- This isn't an entry. A break that closes straight back under the level cancels the setup.
Plenty of first breaks close straight back under the level. Waiting to see the level hold from above is what separates a real break from a stop run.
Stay away
- Price makes a new high. It's confirmed once 3 bars after it fail to go higher.
- Then at least 5 bars in a row have to stay clear of the old high, wicks included. An early touch resets the count.
- The leg, from the old high to the new one, has to be between 0.6 and 3 times the 14-bar ATR.
A touch right after the break is just the break still chopping. Going away first and then coming back is the second look the setup is named for.
The knock: enter on the close back above
- A candle's range touches the old high.
- That candle, or the next one, closes back above the old high. That's the knock. Enter at that close.
- Stop: 1 tick under the knock candle's low, or 1 tick under a line 4 ticks below the old high if that's lower.
The old ceiling just acted as a floor. The stop goes where that read is proven wrong, which is only a few cents away.
The new high has to break
- A close above the new high confirms the break of structure. The indicator marks it with a check.
- It has to come within 24 bars of the knock. If it doesn't, the setup is off.
- A close more than 4 ticks back under the old high also ends it.
A level that held on the knock should let price go straight back to the high and through it. If it can't, the buyers who held the level aren't there.
T2 is one more leg, risk 1%
- T2 = the new high plus the leg (new high minus old high). Minus for shorts.
- Size every trade so the stop costs 1% of the account, then check the share count against your buying power.
A measured move: the leg that broke the old high, repeated from the new one. With the stop this close, T2 is usually several times the risk.
Two ways in, same trade
The indicator alerts on both. Same example as the walkthrough: old high 101.20, new high 101.92, leg 0.72, T2 102.64.
This setup
On the knock- Entry
- 101.34
- Stop
- 101.11
- Risk
- 0.23
- To T2
- +1.30 · 5.7R
More of these fail, because the new high hasn't broken yet. When they work, one pays for several stops.
Waiting for proof
On the break of the new high- Entry
- 102.04
- Stop
- 101.11
- Risk
- 0.93
- To T2
- +0.60 · 0.6R
Confirmed, but the stop is still under the knock, so T2 is closer than the stop. It needs a high win rate to pay.
What cancels it
Every decision is made on a closed bar, never on a wick or a bar that's still forming.
More than 4 ticks under the old high (over it, for shorts). Before the knock, the setup is gone. After it, get out on that close if the stop hasn't already filled.
No close above the new high within 24 bars of the knock, or 120 bars since the break. The idea has gone stale.
A fresh break of a swing low cancels every long setup still open, and the reverse. The old high is also retired once a break above it confirms.